José Ramón Martínez.
Less than a month to the elections and the streets there is no atmosphere of election. Between processions, bridges, victories hostesses, parties and dances, the staff have forgotten that on May 22 we have to choose new municipal corporations, county councils and many of the regional assemblies. And is that not having the streets, roads or any public element flooded with the classic signs of decay electoral sense.
Although imminent, make predictions about the election result is the less risky, sure the campaign will increase in some cases and, mostly, reduce positions. Of course, the dire crisis management will greatly influence the Government, shall prevail. But do not forget the scope of the elections, whether there had been a road, if I have managed the street or if we had a detrimental endless work on the corner where the bakery we also have plenty to say.
Polls predict a socialist debacle. It is necessary to understand them as a trend and not as a certainty. It is impossible, I repeat, impossible for the PSOE lost all regions involved. The four nuclei that will focus the national campaign will not lose the autonomous fiefdoms of Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha for Cospedal - and, not least, the cities of Barcelona and Seville. If it is defeated by at least two will be a disaster. If that also falls in Asturias, Aragon and lost all the provincial capitals of Andalusia, things would have dramatic overtones.
If indeed what the polls say should occur, the loss of all regional socialist power, would show that the English people have withdrawn their confidence, as a majority, the PSOE, the Prime Minister should dissolve the Parliament and call an election refers to autumn, but in this country custom is to hold the post.
My bet for 22 May is that Fernández Vara win in Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha will remain Barreda, with more uncertainty in the latter than the former. The socialist power in small populations of the two communities remains predominant and these tiny towns unbalanced the balance, we'll see. In Catalonia, the PSC will disappear from the map, eye García Albiol in Badalona, \u200b\u200band the red belt of Madrid will become increasingly small. Since then the PP will be clear victory, but needed to see the scale of victory, to know if there will be party in general. The fourth Sunday of the fifth month we'll know.
0 comments:
Post a Comment